Pengeluaran Sgp

Pengeluaran Sgp Betting Systems

One of the most frequent questions I am asked is about the value of betting systems. By a betting system I mean a method of varying bet size with the goal of improving, cutting down, or eliminating the house edge.

There are many con artists pushing such systems with promises of easily beating the casino at simple games of luck like roulette. The way many systems work is that the bet size increases in relation to the number of past consecutive losses.

The logic is that a win will eventually come along and wipe out most, if not all of past losses. This progressive method of betting often provides a false sense of confidence with many small wins. However, eventually the player will hit a losing streak and financial loss of all past profits.

Other systems are based on the false notion that an event that has not happened lately is more likely to occur and thus makes a favorable bet. The fallacy behind this system is that games of independent trials like roulette and craps have no memory. What has happened in the past has no correlation with the present or future. In other words no event is ever overdue.

I’m not totally against using betting systems. If you enjoy using one then by all means use it. If your goal is to usually win but with occasional large losses then a system of betting more after losses will help achieve that goal. If you don’t mind many small losses but want to have a better chance at large wins then betting more after a win will help. However make no mistake that when measuring the ratio of the expected loss by the total amount bet the result will get close to the theoretical house edge the longer you play. Measured this way all betting systems are equally worthless.

If you don’t believe me, here is what the Encyclopedia Brittanica says under the topic of gambling:

“A common gamblers’ fallacy called ‘the doctrine of the maturity of the chances’ (or ‘Monte Carlo fallacy’) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of ‘systems’ have been invented by Pengeluaran Sgp gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays.”

Again the point is emphasized under the topic of roulette:

“The oldest and most common betting system is the Martingale or “doubling-up” system, in which bets are doubled progressively. This probably dates back to the invention of the Roulette wheel, but every day of the week some gambler somewhere reinvents it, or some variation of it, and believes he has something new. Over the years hundreds of ‘sure-fire’ winning systems have been dreamed up, but regardless of what system is used, in the long run it cannot overcome the house’s advantage of the 0, or 0 and 00. This house advantage is the only system that consistently wins in the long run.”

As long as I live, I know that the mathematically challenged will continue to try to debate me on this. They will claim that their open mindedness allows them to see mathematical truths beyond what is printed in probability texts. They will claim that computer analysis debunking betting systems is flawed because computers don’t gamble, people do. These charlatans will say anything to get you to buy their system.

The fact remains that gambling has been around for thousands of years and nobody has proven a working betting system yet. Casinos are still alive and thriving. Nobody has ever knocked out the mathematical underpinnings on which games of chance rest, and nobody ever will.